Arms scandal: Likely theories and hypotheses

We are in the middle of a corruption story. The main characters are a potential ‘Lone Ranger,’ A likely ‘Middle Man’ and some mysterious ‘Unknown Forces.’ Since the story is convoluted, we can only try and make sense of it through a series of theories and hypotheses. And where things don’t add up, we will force them to add up. The first is the Theory of the Lone Ranger.’ The hypothesis here is that this fake arms deal is a solitary venture, a sole proprietorship. And that it is actually the former Cabinet Secretary Rashid Echesa who is the owner of the enterprise. As a man who is currently jobless, Echesa is using the only skills that he has, to make the money that he needs. And he is quite talented at it. Like a good Hustler, he is using the tried and tested method of ‘namedropping’ and using an unsuspecting powerful friend to make a quick buck.  

Besides the talent, he apparently also has the experience. Echesa has been linked to an assortment of unscrupulous dealings. Remember the Ruiru foreign currency money bust? And the infamous ‘exchange programme’ that involved the importation of sex workers from Bangladesh?  

But there is a hole in this ‘Lone Ranger’ premise. Echesa is as a man who likely has an array of unorthodox money-making schemes at his disposal. ‘Merchandise of War’ is too high level a commodity for him to choose to engage in. Military drones, guns and ammunition are not the kind of goods you can keep in your house for resale later. At least not without the danger of looking like you are preparing for mercenary activity, and other treasonous ventures.

Which brings us to the second theory: that he is not alone. The hypothesis here is that the Deputy President is either involved, or is the architect. But once again, something does not add up from the outset. Besides the highly sensitive nature of the merchandise, the model of transaction itself is not straight forward.

As Kenyans, we are exposed to literature on corrupt dealings almost daily. And from our readings, we know that a ‘good old’ crooked transaction normally involves cost inflation. Commodities like dams are quoted at more than quadruple the price, and the corrupt dealer ‘keeps the change’. Simple.

But in this arms case, the model looks more convoluted. Unless of course, the arms being purchased are a means to an end, not an end in themselves. The corruption marketplace is more complex than we know. The chain of purchase has a seller, a buyer and a middle man. Allow me to plead temporary insanity for this next hypothesis.

Next door, our neighbour South Sudan is still under an arms embargo. The active sanction presents a lucrative backdoor market for the ‘Middle Man’ here, and promises far larger mark-ups and profit than any Dam could. Besides the monetary benefit, dealings with South Sudan create an armed ally for the Middle Man. But that is a story for another day.

If this theory holds, and the DP is the Middle Man, then a prediction made by William Ruto himself will come to pass. This is where the third character in the story comes in. The DP told us that some ‘Unknown Forces’ are plotting and scheming his return to the International Criminal Court. After all, the court left the 2008 case open, to be ‘continued’ upon the presentation of further evidence. What we may find out however is that we will be looking at the opening of a new case, not the continuation of an old one. This time, he may be called to stand in the dock on the accusation of being the ‘Middle Man.’